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Two Hopeful Signs
(5.23.08)
We have some good news regarding public radio's audience. Listening levels and reach, while continuing to decline for radio overall, now show increases for public radio. Two graphs show data for the spring Arbitron surveys:
Change in Radio & Public Radio Listening Levels. This graph shows a steady decline in overall radio listening levels. However, public radio, which had been on a three survey decline since 2003, now has a positive growth trend from 2006 to 2007.
Change in Radio & Public Radio Reach. This graph shows the continued softening of radio's reach into the U.S. population. The good news here is that after declines from 2004 through 2006, public radio's reach increases in 2007.
You'll notice a much steeper decline for overall radio listening than for reach as people continue to use radio, but are spending less time with the medium. Public radio, on the other hand, is once again showing growth in these areas. In Spring 2007, public radio had a reach of 11.1% of all Americans and generated 5.0% of all radio listening, compared with the 2003 peaks of 11.3% and 5.0%, respectively.
We will be watching to see if the stations in the top markets hold their gains in 2008, since some of the increases in 2007 can be attributed to two stations in two large markets becoming the only all-Classical formats in their respective markets.
Spring 2007 Numbers, Pt. 2 - Markets 11 thru 25
(8.16.07)
In our second examination of the results of the Spring 2007 Arbitron survey, subscriber estimates in Arbitron diary based metros 11 through 25 show an increase, albeit a much smaller one than in the top 10, in the size of public radio's AQH audience compared to Spring 2006. The metro AQH increases by 1.6%, while the total market AQH is up by 0.6%. Unfortunately, the AQH audience is down compared to Winter 2007, as the metro AQH decreases by 3.7%. However, a comparison with Fall 2006 shows a metro AQH with an increase of 0.8% in Spring 2007 and a total market AQH that is up by 0.9%.
Markets 11-25 did not have the benefit of commercial competitors dropping the classical music format as is the case in some of the Top 10 markets.
For those of you keeping score, AQH estimates in the Top 25 diary-based metros are up by 6.2% in the metro versus Spring 2006 and show a 5.0% increase in the total market.
We've included a table illustrating the changes in the weekly (Monday-Sunday, 6A-Mid) Persons 12+ cume, time spent listening and AQH estimates in Spring 2007 versus Spring 2006, Winter 2007 and Fall 2006. The data are compiled from Arbitron estimates for stations subscribing in their home market in diary-based metros ranked 11 through 25. There are also totals for the Top 25 diary-based metros.
You can track the changes in your station's audience levels in RRC's ListenerPC and MarketPC software, as well as RRC's Listener Behavior Report (LBR). If you cannot locate the data to review the past, or you are not sure how best to track for the future, please call or email us.
A First Look at the Spring 2007 Numbers
(8.10.07)
A review of the Spring 2007 estimates in the Top 10 diary-based metros shows an increase in the size of public radio's AQH audience compared to Spring 2006. The metro AQH shows an increase of 10.4%, while the total market AQH is up by 9.1%. The news is not quite as good compared with Winter 2007, as the metro AQH is down by 2.1%. However, a comparison with Fall 2006 shows a metro AQH with an increase of 7.8% and a total market AQH that is up by 6.4% in Spring 2007.
We've included a table illustrating the changes in the weekly (Monday-Sunday, 6A-Mid) Persons 12+ cume, time spent listening and AQH estimates versus Spring 2006, Winter 2007 and Fall 2006. The data are compiled from Arbitron estimates for stations subscribing in their home market in the top 10 diary-based metros.
You can track the changes in your station's audience levels in RRC's ListenerPC and MarketPC software, as well as RRC's Listener Behavior Report (LBR). If you cannot locate the data to review the past, or you are not sure how best to track for the future, please call or email us.
RRC Board Names Edwards as Chair, Adds Williams
(7.9.07)
Radio Research Consortium has chosen Dave Edwards, Director/General Manager of public radio station WUWM, Milwaukee, as its new chairman. Edwards was elected at the RRC's annual meeting last month. At the same time, RRC expanded its board with the election of Scott Williams, program director of KJZZ and KBAQ, Phoenix.
Edwards, who has led Milwaukee Public Radio since 1985, has increased local fundraising, built a new state of the art facility and expanded news coverage. WUWM was among the first public radio stations to convert to an all news and information format. The station has also participated in the national "Sense of Place" research project designed to help focus local news coverage. Edwards is a member of the University/Station Alliance board and also serves on the NPR board. He has served on the RRC board since 2003.
"It is an honor to lead an organization dedicated to understanding the ways in which listeners use non-commercial radio stations around the country," Edwards said. "The RRC has always stood for presenting data in an unbiased manner so that general managers, program directors, development managers and others can make informed decisions about their programming."
Scott Williams has been a program director since 1976, and has headed programming at all-news KJZZ and classical KBAQ in Phoenix since 1989. Williams served on the Public Radio Program Directors Association board, chaired the group for two years and has led its annual PD workshop for 13 years. He was a trainer for RRC workshops for four years, and he is also part of Strategic Programming Partners, currently leading the Morning Edition Grad School project. He was teaching assistant for Howard Stern's first communications class at Boston University.
"I look forward to serving an organization that provides information stations use to monitor its most important resource - programming," Williams said.
"I welcome Dave and Scott's leadership as RRC charts it way through the new world of electronic measurement," said RRC President Joanne Church. "They will help keep public radio on the cutting edge of audience analysis."
In addition to Ms. Church, other RRC board members are Ken Davis of Chicago, IL; Steve Meuche of East Lansing, MI; Craig Oliver of Silver Spring, MD; John Perry of Kent, OH; and Gary Shivers of Kansas City, MO.
A Glimmer of Good Cume News
(7.5.07)
The size of public radio's First Choice, or P1, cume audience rebounded in 2006 compared to 2005 and is near the 2004 peak. At the same time, fringe listener cume levels continued to slip from the 2004 peak, resulting in a fairly stagnant total cume audience. The bounce-back in the size of the First Choice cume is refreshing news since the estimate is a good leading indicator for the number of donors to the station in succeeding years.
We've included a graph illustrating the changes in 24-hour cume growth rates (Total vs. First Choice vs. Remainder) from 1989 to 2006. The data are compiled from Arbitron estimates for CPB stations subscribing to RRC's Listener Focus Pack, Persons 12+, Monday-Sunday 24 hours, Total Market, spring/fall survey average.
You can track the changes in your station's cume audience, in total and by choice segment, in the History section of RRC's Listener Behavior Report (LBR). The data are presented in graphic and table formats. You can also trend your cume audience data in RRC's ListenerPC software, which lets you run Loyalty and Choice reports for any daypart and/or demographic. You can run a Loyalty and Choice trend for up to five surveys at a time. (Remember to combine Exclusive and First Choice Shared percentages when determining the size of the First Choice cume.)
What if your station's First Choice cume audience is declining in 2006 rather than improving? You may have a loyalty problem. To fix a loyalty problem, you will need to increase TSL -- to do this, you must find creative ways to increase listening occasions or to extend the average duration of each listening occasion.
If you cannot locate the data to review the past, or you are not sure how best to track for the future, please call or email us.
Public Radio's Declining Loyalty
(5.22.07)
An analysis by RRC of the Time Spent Listening (TSL) data for the last six fall surveys shows a decline in loyalty to the average public radio station. Loyalty is defined as the percentage of a listener's TSL to radio that is spent with a particular station.
From Fall 2001 to Fall 2006, we found that the weekly TSL to radio by listeners to the average public radio station has dropped by 45 minutes per week, from 83.0 quarter-hours to 79.9 quarter-hours. At the same time, the weekly TSL to public radio stations by these same listeners fell at a greater rate, decreasing from 27.9 to 26.4 quarter-hours per week. Consequently, this group of stations shows a drop in loyalty; between 2001 and 2006, loyalty to the average station fell from 33.6% to 33.0%.
We've included a graph illustrating the changes in public radio listeners' TSL to radio and to public radio over the last six fall surveys and the resulting changes in loyalty. The data are based on the estimates for the average of 255 public radio stations subscribing to Arbitron data, Persons 12+, Monday-Sunday 24 hours, Total Market. Data for the same 255 stations were utilized for all six years of fall surveys.
Tracking the changes in your station's loyalty is easy. You can find a loyalty trend in the History section of RRC's Listener Behavior Report (LBR) for your station. Each LBR also provides you with graphic loyalty information for a single survey for weekdays, Saturday and Sunday, so you can see which parts of your station's schedule are above or below the average loyalty for the week.
RRC's ListenerPC software lets you run Loyalty and Choice reports for any daypart and/or demographic. You can also run a Loyalty and Choice trend for up to five surveys at a time.
How do you fix a loyalty problem? Increase TSL - find creative ways to increase listening occasions or to extend the average duration of each listening occasion.
If you cannot locate the data to review the past, or you are not sure how best to track for the future, please call or email us.
(We note that the data currently provided by Arbitron from its Personal People Meter (PPM) does not include loyalty information.)
What is Causing Public Radio's Eroding TSL?
(4.18.07)
An analysis by RRC of the Time Spent Listening (TSL) data for the last six fall surveys shows that public radio's declining TSL is mostly due to a decrease in the average number of listening occasions. From Fall 2001 to Fall 2006, the weekly TSL to the average public radio station has decreased from 27.3 quarter-hours per week to 25.7 quarter-hours per week. At the same time, the average number of tune-ins, or occasions, to public radio stations has dropped from 5.8 per week to 5.6 per week. The average time spent per tune-in, or duration, has fluctuated between 4.7 quarter-hours and 4.6 quarter-hours over the same period.
We've included a graph illustrating the changes in public radio's TSL, occasions and duration over the last six fall surveys. The data are based on the estimates for the average of 255 public radio stations subscribing to Arbitron data, Persons 12+, M-Su 6 am-Midnight, Total Market. We used the same 255 stations for all six years of fall surveys. TSL is calculated by multiplying occasions times duration.
The average public radio station is one thing, but what are the changes in your station's occasions and duration? What impact are these changes having on your station's TSL?
RRC's Listener Behavior Report (LBR) for your station includes a history table at the back of the report, usually beginning on page 23. The bottom of the first history page reports estimates of occasion and duration across as many as nine surveys. What is the TSL trend at your station, and is it driven by changes in the number of tune-ins (occasions) and/or the average length of each tune-in (duration)?
Has your station agreed to accept the NPR challenge to increase the number of weekly tune-ins (occasions)?
When tune-ins occur to your station is reported on Page 2 of the LBR, as are those times when new occasions to the station are minimal. You can also run day-by-day reports in your ListenerPC software to track same day/same time tune-in.
Subscribers to Arbitron's PD Advantage software can run Report #8, "How often do my listeners tune in and how long do they stay?" This will give you the occasions and duration estimates for metro listeners for any daypart.
And, of course, if you cannot locate the data to review the past, or you are not sure how best to track for the future, please call or email us.
(We note that the data currently provided by Arbitron from its Personal People Meter (PPM) does not include TSL divided into its two parts, occasions and duration. However, recent Arbitron presentations show a shorter TSL with more tune-ins, but less time spent per tune-in.)
